Thanksgiving Football Feast: $4.5B in Wagers Expected this Week
Thanksgiving and football make the perfect combination since both are uniquely American, and although sports betting isn't exclusive to the US, many local bettors will indulge in football wagers as they enjoy their turkey this week.
In a fresh report for clients, Macquarie analyst Chad Beynon predicts that US gamblers will make $4.5 billion in bets this week within regulated markets. Beynon describes Thanksgiving Week as the timeframe from November 25 to December 1.
That prediction suggests an annual increase of 11%, and although that $4.5 billion will probably encompass other sports, particularly basketball, football — driven by the NFL — will carry the majority of the weight.
Football is the most bet-on sport in the US, and this Thanksgiving, a historic 38 states along with Washington, DC will allow various forms of sports wagering. Beynon predicts that betting volumes will increase by 15% this week in comparison to last year, and the NFL is accommodating bettors. Three games take place on Thanksgiving, and the Kansas City Chiefs are set to compete against the Las Vegas Raiders on Black Friday. Next comes the regular Sunday lineup.
College football is contributing as well. Games occur all week, featuring at least one on Thanksgiving and over a dozen the following day.
Thanksgiving Football May Advantage These Operators
Higher levels of wagering during Thanksgiving Week are expected to positively impact the gaming industry overall, although the benefits at the operator level will vary.
Flutter Entertainment's FanDuel (NYSE: FLUT) and DraftKings (NASDAQ: DKNG) are the top sportsbook firms by market share, and this is not expected to alter in the near future, yet Beynon observes that smaller rivals are gaining traction this week. He stated that Bally's (NYSE: BALY), Caesars Sportsbook, and Rush Street Interactive (NYSE: RSI) are expected to experience the greatest year-over-year growth in Thanksgiving Week hold.
"BetMGM is coming off two weeks of above-average hold of 11%+, which could represent significant upside should this trend persist,” Beynon wrote.
He mentioned that, according to New York's data up to November 18, DraftKings and Caesars Sportsbook seemed to be increasing their market share. Thanksgiving also boosts football betting in another manner.
All three games on that day are regarded by bettors as high-profile events similar to "Monday Night Football," leading them to be more willing to wager on these matches. In week 12 of the NFL season, primetime matchups made up 37% of wagers and 10% of total handle, as reported by Macquarie.
Optimistic about Gambling Stocks
Beynon has a positive outlook on stocks related to sports betting, assigning "outperform" ratings to Caesars Entertainment (NASDAQ: CZR), DraftKings, Penn Entertainment (NASDAQ: PENN) which owns ESPN Bet, and Rush Street Interactive.
He favors operators with experience in online gaming, such as sports betting, because of the increased gross gaming revenue (GGR) growth potential.
“We favor Online for two reasons: 1) it is the only major Gaming sector not dependent on the economy for double-digit growth; and 2) it is the only Gaming sector that has consistently exceeded market expectations over the past two years. We forecast 4Q GGR of +23% (+23% online sports betting, +25% iGaming), and 2025E GGR +18% year-over-year,” he concluded.
