“Massive Handle” In March Madness Sports Betting So Far
With the completion of the opening weekend games in both the men's and women's brackets and the Sweet 16 scheduled to begin on Thursday, March Madness has consistently been one of the biggest betting events of the year.
The Sweet 16 Set
Men's games begin on Thursday at 7:10 p.m. EST at SAP Center in San Jose between No. 11 Texas and No. 2 Purdue, and at 7:30 p.m. EST at Toyota Center in Houston between No. 9 Iowa and No. 4 Nebraska. Next, at 9:45 p.m. EST, No. 4 Arkansas will play No. 1 Arizona at SAP Center in San Jose, and at 10:05 p.m. EST, No. 3 Illinois will play No. 2 Houston at Toyota Center.
Good Weekend for Bettors
“March Madness is always one of the biggest betting events of the year, and this year has been no different,” said Patrick Berbert, College Basketball Trader at Caesars Sportsbook. “The first weekend brought a ton of handle on the men’s side, especially on favorites and brand-name programs.
"When the favorites went 16-0 straight up on Friday, bettors were able to roll those wins into the rest of the weekend, which helped create a massive handle. Once a few underdogs started knocking off those favorites on Sunday, the results swung significantly, and the volume kept climbing.”
Women's Competition
No. 6 Notre Dame will play No. 2 Vanderbilt at Dickies Arena in Fort Worth, Texas, on Friday at 2:30 p.m. EST; No. 4 North Carolina will play No. 1 UConn at Dickies Arena at 5:00 p.m. EST; No. 4 Minnesota will play No. 1 UCLA at Golden 1 Center in Sacramento at 7:30 p.m. EST; and No. 3 Duke will play No. 2 LSU at Golden 10:00 p.m. EST.
"The betting interest on the women continues to grow every year,” said Berbert. “Star players and top programs are driving significant engagement, and we’re seeing more bettors wagering on individual games rather than just futures.
“We saw a lot of early action on shorter underdogs on the money line. As we got closer to tipoff, bettors really embraced some of the big spreads north of 50 points. Those numbers didn’t scare bettors away at all.”
The Duke Most Bet Team
A representative for theScore claims that Duke has seen the highest percentage of handle to win the men's national championship since the first round began on Thursday afternoon. During that period, five teams—including Florida, which was eliminated on Sunday—brought in more tickets for the tournament champion than the Blue Devils, with Arizona, Michigan, and Houston leading the way.
Michigan is a +300 favorite to win the national championship at theScore after the weekend. On Thursday morning, the Wolverines had the second-best odds (+375) going into the tournament. At +325, Arizona presently has the second-best odds. Before their opening game on Friday, they were the clear favorite (+320) and had the third-best odds (+390) going into the tournament.
Duke was a +320 favorite before their match against Siena on Thursday, and now they have the third-best odds (+370).
Strong Emphasis on Futures Exposure
According to Berbert, futures exposure is the main priority at Caesars Sportsbook in anticipation of the Sweet 16.
"From our perspective, St. John’s would be one of the teams we’d like to see get knocked out at some point,” he said. “Ideally, we would like a mix of results and a few underdogs advancing to keep things balanced. That said, with the point spreads tightening as the tournament progresses, we’re in a pretty good position with some of the favorites advancing.
“Teams like Michigan, Duke and Arizona are some of our better outcomes from a futures standpoint. Of the eight Sweet 16 matchups, we’re expecting Illinois versus Houston to attract the most handle. Although the other seven games shouldn’t be far behind.
UConn Line Movement
“With 16 Power 5 programs remaining, this is really the best of the best at this point in the tournament. When you get matchups like that in the Sweet 16, the betting interest usually spreads evenly across the board, and we expect the handle to reflect that.”
UConn +300 to -300 (Open to Current), UCLA +700 to +475, and South Carolina +250 to +900 had the most line movements at BetMGM for women's national championship futures. UCLA (16.5%), South Carolina (15.7%), and UConn (11.3%) have the highest ticket percentages.
The largest outstanding liabilities
UCLA (26.7%), UConn (24.7%), and South Carolina (11.2%) have the highest handle percentages. Texas Tech, Michigan, and UCLA are BetMGM's biggest liabilities.
Michigan +2500 to +300 (Open to Current), Duke +1000 to +425, and Arizona +4000 to +325 have the largest line movement for men's national championship futures, according to BetMGM.
“It was a chalky opening weekend in the NCAA Tournament with favorites winning 22 straight games from Thursday to Saturday (on the men’s side). The sportsbook will be looking for a few upsets in the Sweet 16. On the futures book, St. John’s and Arkansas are the biggest remaining liabilities to cut down the nets, while all the 1-seeds are positive outcomes,” said Michael Ranftle, Senior Trader, BetMGM.
